Comparative analysis of the relationship between load-shedding and frozen wholesale chicken and beef meat prices in South Africa from 2014-2023

Abstract

South Africa's ongoing electricity crisis, characterised by frequent load-shedding since 2008, continues to disrupt energy-intensive sectors, particularly agriculture and food value chains. Among these, the frozen meat industry, encompassing chicken and beef, relies heavily on uninterrupted power for processing, storage, and distribution. However, power disruptions increase production costs, reduce supply efficiency, and induce price volatility, with direct implications for food security. The aim of this study was to comparatively analyse the relationship between load-shedding and frozen wholesale chicken and beef prices in South Africa over the period 2014 to 2023. The present study employed a quantitative time-series design using monthly secondary data obtained from the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA), the South African Poultry Association (SAPA), the Red Meat Producers Organisation (RPO), and the Red Meat Abattoir Association (RMAA). Analytical techniques included the Coefficient of Variation (CV) to assess variability, correlation analysis to determine associations, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen cointegration tests to assess long-run equilibrium relationships, and both Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models to examine short- and long-run dynamics. Empirical results revealed that load-shedding showed high variability throughout the study period, with more severe fluctuations during 2018–2023. Beef production was more volatile than chicken production, while frozen chicken prices remained relatively stable. Correlation results indicated a positive association between load-shedding and the wholesale prices of chicken (r = 0.60) and beef (r = 0.50), suggesting that greater power disruptions were associated with higher prices. Johansen cointegration tests confirmed a long-run relationship among beef-related variables, while VECM estimates indicated that load-shedding significantly influenced beef prices in both the short- and long-run. Conversely, the VAR results for chicken variables showed more substantial short-run effects, suggesting that the poultry sector is more sensitive to immediate power supply shocks than the beef sector. The study concludes that load-shedding exerts both direct and indirect effects on frozen meat prices by disrupting production and distribution systems and increasing operational costs. It recommends that national energy and agricultural authorities namely, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD), the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), and Eskom prioritise energy resilience investments in agri-food value chains. Sector-level measures should promote renewable energy adoption, cold-chain efficiency, and risk mitigation strategies among producers and processors. By quantifying the comparative effects of load-shedding on chicken and beef prices, this study contributes to understanding the intersection of energy security and food market stability in South Africa. The findings provide actionable insights for policy formulation to enhance energy reliability, stabilise food prices, and safeguard national food security