Numerical modelling of groundwater flow at Mogalakwane Subcatchment, Limpopo Province : implication for sustainability of groundwater supply

Abstract

The Limpopo Province is largely underlain by crystalline basement rocks, which are characterised by low porosity and permeability. The climate in this province is arid to semi-arid, with scarce surface water for domestic and industrial use. As a result, groundwater is the prime source of fresh water supply for various uses. The complex geology, the impacts of climate change and man-made interactions with groundwater and surface water are the main threat to the availability of a sustainable source of fresh water in the province. In addition, despite substantial research efforts conducted by academic institutions and government organisations, there is still a gap in understanding quantitatively the dynamics of the hydrological systems in large parts of the Limpopo Province. The present study is therefore focused on the investigation of hydrological stresses that are applied to groundwater and surface water in one of the catchments situated in the Limpopo Province. In this study, a three-dimensional steady-state numerical model of groundwater flow was carried out at Mogalakwena Subcatchment, which is situated in the western sector of the Limpopo Province. The area is situated approximately 40 km northwest of Mokopane and 50 km west of Polokwane town. The research aims to understand the dynamics of the exchange between surface water and groundwater, and to assess the influences of these processes on the sustainability of water supply in the area. Hydrologically, the area falls within the boundaries of the Mogalakwena River Catchment, which forms part of the Limpopo River Basin. Previous studies suggest that there is a continuous decline in groundwater levels in the study area due to extensive use of groundwater for mining, irrigation, and domestic purposes. Furthermore, continued climate changes have altered the rainfall events during the last couple of decades, which consequently had an impact on groundwater recharge, quality, and availability. In addition, the complex geology of the area has an impact on the aquifers’ productivity resulting in variability in borehole yields throughout the study area. To achieve the aims of the research project, a three-dimensional steady-state numerical model of groundwater flow was implemented using MODFLOW NWT and ModelMuse

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graphical user interface. The model domain covers an area of 5896 sq. km and was discretised with a grid cell size of 200 m by 200 m. The MODFLOW Packages used include DIS, UPW, RCH, EVT, WEL, GHB, RIV and UZF as well as the ZONEBUDGET. The conceptual model of groundwater flow consists of two layers, and it was developed based on drillhole logs, hydrochemical data, environmental isotopes, geological, digital terrain models, and other spatial data relevant for the conceptualisation of boundary conditions and hydrological stresses. The results of the steady-state simulation of groundwater flow show that recharge contributes 99.6% of inflow, followed by river leakage (0.36%) and GHB (0.08%). Among the outflow components, surface runoff takes the lion’s share (83.3%), followed by evapotranspiration (16.6%) and river leakage 0.02%. The zone budget was implemented to evaluate the interaction between surface water and groundwater by quantifying the amount of water that flows from one zone to the other. This was achieved by assigning zone numbers to the objects that represent boundary conditions (e.g., aquifer, river and dam). Zone 1, 2 and 3 were assigned to the aquifer, river and dam, respectively. The results indicate that the rivers gain more water than they supply to the aquifer. Similarly, the Glen Alpine Dam gain more water from the aquifer than it supplies to the aquifer. This implies that the interaction between surface water bodies such as rivers and dams have a significant impact on the aquifer, which consequently partly contributed to the shortage of water in the area. A predictive analysis of the aquifer’s response to an increase in abstraction rate, evapotranspiration rate and a decrease in recharge was carried out to investigate the future fate of water availability in the study area. The results suggest that as recharge decreases, the river inflow slightly increases to compensate for the declining water level due to the river stage exceeding the piezometric surface. In addition, the decrease in recharge rate is accompanied by a slight decrease in both surface runoff and evapotranspiration rate. Thus, a decline in recharge causes a significant drop in piezometric surface relative to the evapotranspiration extinction depth, which ultimately decreases the rate of evapotranspiration. Similarly, a decrease in recharge rate lowers the depth of the water level below the river stage, which consequently triggers water

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exchange from Mogalakwena River to the aquifer. In general, the water balance shows that as recharge decreases by 20% or more, the outflows exceed the inflows resulting in a continuous drop in water level, which may ultimately risk the availability of groundwater in the area.