Analysing drought risk preparedness by smallholder livestock farmers: an application of protection motivation theory in Blouberg Local Municipality, Limpopo Province

Abstract

Understanding the factors that influence farmers' decisions to take preventive measures against natural hazards provides insight that can be used to develop user-specific interventions to support their adaptation processes. The use of Protection Motivation Theory in analysing climate risk adaptation behaviour is driven by the increase in climate change, which is projected to increase the frequency and severity of climate related risks such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts. Given the importance of livestock in rural communities, information about their adaptation must be prioritised; yet, this is not the case, as most climate change adaptation research focus on crop production. The main aim of the study was to analyse the drought risk preparedness of smallholder livestock farmers in the Limpopo Province's Blouberg Local Municipality. The study's specific objectives were to identify and describe the socioeconomic characteristics of smallholder livestock farmers in the Blouberg Local Municipality, as well as to determine the drought coping and adaptation strategies used by them and to evaluate the protection motivation theory components influencing that coping and adaptation behaviour. The study collected primary cross-sectional data from 130 smallholder livestock farmers in the Blouberg Local Municipality using a semi-structured questionnaire. The farmers' drought risk coping and adaptation strategies were described using descriptive statistics, while multiple linear regression was used to test whether protection motivation theory variables influence the adaptation and coping choices of smallholder livestock farmers in Blouberg Local Municipality. According to the findings, smallholder livestock farmers in Blouberg Local Municipality use four measures on average to protect their livestock against drought. With an R2 adjusted of 0.70, protection motivation theory variables explain 70% of the variation in farmer protection motivation. Perceived risk probability, perceived severity, perceived self-efficacy, and perceived costs were significant variables associated with farmers' protection motive. It is recommended that interventions meant to increase drought risk resilience of the farmers should prioritise early warning signals to increase perceived probability of the farmers, create platforms for information exchange to increase perceived severity, teach farmers methods practically to increase perceived self-efficacy and keep the price of utilising measures low to decrease perceived cost